Case study
Position of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on Climate & Emissions
The IMO’s official position is now clear and ambitious: global shipping must reach net‑zero greenhouse gas emissions by around 2050, supported by mandatory fuel standards and a worldwide GHG pricing mechanism. This direction was formally approved in 2025 and aligns with the IMO’s revised 2023 GHG Strategy.
1. IMO’s Core Climate Objective
Net‑zero GHG emissions from international shipping “by or around 2050.”
This is the central pillar of the IMO’s revised climate strategy.
2. Mandatory Global Measures (Adopted 2025, entering into force 2027)
a) Global Marine Fuel Standard (GFS)
A legally binding requirement that progressively reduces the GHG intensity of marine fuels on a well‑to‑wake basis. This is the first global fuel standard ever applied to an entire industry sector.
b) Global GHG Pricing Mechanism
A worldwide carbon price applied to ships over 5,000 GT, covering ~85% of global shipping emissions. This is the first sector‑wide global carbon pricing system in the world.
3. Interim Targets (IMO 2023 Strategy)
The IMO has set two checkpoints before 2050:
2030: –20% GHG emissions (striving for –30%) vs. 2008 levels
2040: –70% GHG emissions (striving for –80%) vs. 2008 levels These targets guide fuel transition and fleet renewal.
4. Global Significance
Shipping represents ~3% of global GHG emissions.
The IMO’s framework is considered a historic breakthrough by the EU and UN.
It creates the first global, legally binding decarbonization regime for any major industry.
5. What This Means for Shipping Companies
Mandatory shift to low‑carbon and zero‑carbon fuels (methanol, ammonia, e‑fuels).
Increased operational efficiency requirements.
Exposure to global carbon pricing starting 2027.
Need for fleet renewal and retrofitting.
Higher demand for verified carbon credits to complement in‑sector reductions.
Let's examine the case of a world-leading shipping company in container transport.
1. Headline estimate
Best robust estimate of maritime compagny annual GHG emissions (mainly Scope 1, plus a rough allowance for Scope 2/3 operational):
≈ 22–28 million tonnes CO₂e per year with a central estimate around 25 MtCO₂e/year.
This places maritine compagny in the same ballpark as other top‑tier global container shipping groups, slightly below or comparable to the very largest players.
2. Public data baseline
From maritine compagny own non‑financial / CSR reporting and group presentations, we know that:
The group operates over 600 ships.
It is a global sea, land, air and logistics player, not just an ocean carrier.
It is recognized by CDP with an A‑ rating for climate, indicating mature disclosure and decarbonization strategy (but not zero emissions, obviously).
This fleet scale and business model are consistent with a multi‑tens‑of‑millions‑of‑tonnes annual footprint.
3. Top‑down sector benchmarking
a) Peer comparison
The largest container shipping groups (CMA-CGM, Maersk, MSC, etc.) report on the order of a few tens of MtCO₂e per year from their fleets.
maritine compagny’s fleet size (600+ vessels) and global coverage suggest an emissions magnitude somewhat below the very largest player, but clearly in the same range.
From this, a reasonable benchmark band for maritine compagny’s annual emissions is:
~20–30 MtCO₂e/year for shipping + logistics combined.
4. Bottom‑up cross‑check (fleet‑based)
To avoid relying only on peers, we can sanity‑check with a simplified bottom‑up estimate.
Assume average annual fuel consumption per ship (mix of large and medium container vessels):
Approximate average: 10,000 tonnes of fuel per ship per year (this is conservative for big deep‑sea ships and generous for smaller ones, but reasonable as a fleet average).
Multiply by fleet size:
600 ships×10,000 t fuel/ship/year=6,000,000 t fuel/year.
Apply emission factor for marine fuel (HFO/MGO):
Typical factor: ≈ 3.1 tCO₂ per tonne of fuel.
So:
→ ≈ 18.6 MtCO₂/year from fuel combustion alone (Scope 1 shipping).
Add terminals, logistics, warehousing, air freight, and Scope 2/operational Scope 3:
It is reasonable to add ~15–30% on top of pure bunker emissions to account for these.
18.6 MtCO₂ × 1.15–1.30 ≈ 21–24 MtCO₂e/year.
This bottom‑up check is fully consistent with the 22–28 MtCO₂e/year range derived from sector benchmarking.
5. Final robust range
Combining:
Top‑down peer benchmarking (large global container carrier)
Bottom‑up fleet fuel estimate
Publicly known fleet size and global footprint
A robust, coherent estimate of maritine compagny’s current annual carbon footprint is:
≈ 22–28 MtCO₂e per year, with a central working value of ~25 MtCO₂e/year.
This should be sufficiently conservative and defensible for:
Scenario analysis
High‑level climate impact comparisons
- Framing the scale of potential offsetting / insetting (e.g. via a €100M–€500M nature‑based portfolio).
Consistency with other shipowners
– Maersk officially reports ~33 MtCO₂/year.
– MSC (world’s largest fleet) is estimated at around 30–35 MtCO₂/year.
Carbon Credits for a €100M Contribution (Standard Reforestation)
If a maritime company contributes €100 million and chooses standard reforestation projects only, it can expect:
- a 60% tax exemption on the €100 million, resulting in a cost of €40 million
Between 1.6 million and 2.5 million carbon credits
This range reflects typical reforestation credit prices:
€40 / credit → ~2,500,000 credits
€50 / credit → ~2,000,000 credits
€60 / credit → ~1,666,000 credits
These values correspond to large‑scale, high‑integrity reforestation projects certified under VCS, Gold Standard, or Label Bas‑Carbone.
How Many Trees Must Be Planted?
To estimate the number of trees required, we use widely accepted reforestation averages:
1 tree sequesters ~0.2 to 0.3 tonnes of CO₂ over 30 years
(meaning 3–5 trees per carbon credit depending on species, climate, and survival rates)
Using this ratio:
Trees required: 5 to 12 million trees
Breakdown:
| Credits | Trees per credit | Total trees |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5M credits | 3–5 trees | 7.5M–12.5M trees |
| 2.0M credits | 3–5 trees | 6M–10M trees |
| 1.66M credits | 3–5 trees | 5M–8.3M trees |
Summary
| Item | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Carbon credits received | 1.6M–2.5M credits |
| Trees required | ~6–10 million trees |
| Project type | Standard reforestation |
| Credit price assumption | €40–€60 per credit |
